Engineering estimates and weather forecasts

Pushing for a lower estimate is like negotiating better weather with the meteorologist!

The fact is the meteorologist doesn’t control the weather. The meteorologist uses his knowledge and observing data to forecast how the weather will be.

In the same way, the development team doesn’t control the actual effort – only by a tiny part. The development team uses their knowledge and data to forecast expected effort.

Source

The post goes on to say:

In these cases, discuss with your stakeholders:

– How much can you spend on this story?
– Discuss what part of the story takes the most time.
– Discuss where are the biggest unknowns
– Discuss alternative ways to address #2 and #3

In addition, discuss ways to:

– slice up the story and deliver it in multiple parts
– validate each part early, preferably using prototypes

Also see:

• Talk about milestones, not epics
• Plan the sprint, not the project
• Estimate relatively, not absolutely
• Estimates vs. appetites